Geopolitical risk and supply-chain pulse.

Signals

Sparklines show the trailing two years. Freight indices (Drewry WCI, FBX, Baltic Dry), ISM supplier delivery times, and the Geopolitical Risk Index are tracked editorially in the quarterly until licensed feeds are wired in.

Leading indicators

Gauges that turn before spending does: billings, planning, and sentiment read intent, not realized cost. Most sat in contraction through mid-2026, confirming the demand read on the front page even as the broad market rallied. The one exception, planning volume, is concentrated in data centers.

Long-lead-item tracker

Published lead-time ranges, as published by the cited source. Only items with a citable public source are listed; survey and vendor data lags, so check the source dates.

Scenario library

Worked examples with documented parameter ranges, calibrated from historical analogs. Scenarios with published archetype impacts can be applied as a stress test in the calculator.

Parameter assumptions and the historical analogs behind them are listed in data/curated/scenarios.json, last reviewed 2026-07-04.

The feed

Curated items relevant to construction cost. Summaries are Fern's; sources are linked. Last reviewed 2026-07-04.

1. 2026-07-02 · freight

   Drewry's World Container Index rose 9% in the week to July 2 to $4,530 per 40-foot container (Shanghai to Rotterdam $4,682, Shanghai to New York $7,902), driven by peak-season rate increases, announced Transpacific blank sailings, and Middle East security risk that remains elevated despite the Hormuz reopening.

   Drewry World Container Index

2. 2026-07-01 · demand

   Census C30: total construction spending fell to a $2,210.2B annual rate in May, down 1.5% year over year, and housing starts dropped to 1,177k SAAR, down 8.7% year over year and the weakest month since 2020. The contraction is concentrated, not broad: residential, office (CMBS delinquency at a record 12.34%), warehouse, and CHIPS-era factory building are shrinking while data centers, power, and transportation infrastructure run at record highs. Broad-market optimism this quarter is not a reliable read on construction demand.

   US Census Bureau (C30)

3. 2026-06-29 · energy

   WTI settled below $70 on June 26 for the first time since the war began on February 27, and traded near $70.56 (Brent $72.91) on June 29 as Hormuz transits recovered, essentially erasing the war premium in crude.

   CNBC

4. 2026-06-18 · geopolitical

   The US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding ending the war: Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the US lifted its naval blockade, and a 60-day clock started on a final deal. Brent fell to $77.73 on the news, about 7% above pre-war levels.

   Al Jazeera

5. 2026-06-17 · demand

   The AIA Architecture Billings Index, which leads nonresidential construction spending by roughly a year, read 44.5 in May, below the 50 line separating growth from contraction, with every region and building sector declining and new-project inquiries turning negative. Builder sentiment (NAHB HMI) sat at 35 in June, a 14th straight month below 40, the longest such streak since 2011. The leading gauges point to further nonresidential weakness into early 2027.

   American Institute of Architects

6. 2026-06-14 · materials

   AGC analysis of the May BLS PPI: construction input costs rose 2.6% for the month, the largest monthly jump since the pandemic era, and about 9.6% year over year, led by diesel fuel up 105.9% year over year.

   AGC via Tri-Cities Area Journal of Business

7. 2026-06-11 · policy

   The Federal Circuit stayed the Court of International Trade's May 7 ruling that invalidated the 10% Section 122 general tariff, so the surcharge remains in collection pending appeal. Its statutory 150-day limit expires July 24, 2026 unless Congress extends it.

   McGuireWoods, Subject to Inquiry

8. 2026-04-22 · supply_chain

   Data-center and grid demand has converted into multi-year electrical-equipment backlogs: GE Vernova reported a $163B backlog with gas turbines sold out through 2029 (Q1 2026), Siemens Energy a record EUR 154B backlog, and Hitachi Energy transformer lead times of 30 to 40 months. NERC's 2025 assessment raised its 10-year US peak-demand forecast by 224 GW, up 69% year over year, citing data centers. Because booked backlog converts to deliveries three-plus years out, long-lead electrical gear (switchgear, transformers, large generators) stays constrained through 2027-28 even if speculative load forecasts prove inflated: AEP Ohio's pipeline fell 57% once regulators required capacity payments.

   GE Vernova Q1 2026 results; NERC 2025 LTRA

9. 2026-03-20 · energy

   Dallas Fed scenario analysis: a Strait of Hormuz closure removing close to 20% of global oil supply through Q2 2026 would put average WTI at $98 and lower global real GDP growth by an annualized 2.9 percentage points for the quarter. The scenario landed close: actual Q2 WTI averaged about $96 (Fern calculation from EIA daily data).

   Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

10. 2026-03-20 · energy

    After the March 18-19 missile strikes on Ras Laffan damaged LNG Trains 4 and 6 (about 17% of Qatar's export capacity), QatarEnergy said repairs will take three to five years, with force majeure declared on some long-term contracts.

    LNG Prime

11. 2026-03-11 · insurance

    Lloyd's List: war-risk premiums for Strait of Hormuz transits were quoted at 2.5% to 5% of hull value (10%+ for US, UK, or Israel-linked ships) against 0.15% to 0.25% pre-conflict, roughly a ten-to-thirty-fold increase, or $10-14 million per transit on a large crude carrier.

    Lloyd's List

12. 2026-02-27 · materials

    AGC commentary on the January PPI: aluminum mill shapes up 33.0% year over year, steel mill products up 20.7%, copper and brass mill shapes up 15.7%, the largest increases since early 2022. Subsequent BLS revisions put January copper and brass at about +31% (Fern calculation from current BLS data).

    AGC Data DIGest

13. 2026-02-20 · policy

    The Supreme Court held 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize presidential tariffs, voiding the 2025 reciprocal and trafficking tariffs while leaving Section 232 metals tariffs and Section 301 China tariffs intact. The administration replaced the voided duties with a 10% surcharge under Section 122, effective February 24, which lapses after 150 days unless Congress extends it.

    Miller & Chevalier