WTI Crude Oil Spot
USD/bbl · daily
95.96
- 30 day
- ↓ 8.9%
- 1 year
- ↑ 56.1%
Updated as conditions evolve
Geopolitical risk and supply-chain pulse.
Leading signals an estimator should watch, long-lead items tracked against baseline, and stress-test scenarios with their assumptions shown. This is scenario planning, not prediction: ranges and documented assumptions, so you can make your own judgment.
Signals
Energy
Brent Crude Oil Spot
USD/bbl · daily
98.29
- 30 day
- ↓ 16.9%
- 1 year
- ↑ 52.8%
Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot
USD/MMBtu · daily
3.07
- 30 day
- ↑ 16.7%
- 1 year
- ↑ 7.3%
US No. 2 Diesel Retail Price
USD/gal · weekly
5.21
- 30 day
- ↓ 7.6%
- 1 year
- ↑ 51.0%
PPI: No. 2 Diesel Fuel
index · monthly
499.43
- 30 day
- ↑ 13.6%
- 1 year
- ↑ 73.8%
Materials under tariff watch
PPI: Steel Mill Products
index · monthly
344.2
- 30 day
- ↑ 3.8%
- 1 year
- ↑ 13.3%
PPI: Aluminum Mill Shapes
index · monthly
394.07
- 30 day
- ↓ 6.6%
- 1 year
- ↑ 12.8%
PPI: Copper and Brass Mill Shapes
index · monthly
824.82
- 30 day
- ↓ 1.3%
- 1 year
- ↑ 26.8%
PPI: Softwood Lumber
index · monthly
283.04
- 30 day
- ↑ 5.5%
- 1 year
- ↑ 0.9%
PPI: Plastic Construction Products
index · monthly
344.74
- 30 day
- ↑ 0.9%
- 1 year
- ↑ 1.8%
PPI: Asphalt Paving Mixtures and Blocks
index · monthly
410.04
- 30 day
- ↓ 5.7%
- 1 year
- ↓ 0.2%
Financing
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
percent · daily
4.56
- 30 day
- ↑ 4.1%
- 1 year
- ↑ 1.1%
Sparklines show the trailing two years. Freight indices (Drewry WCI, FBX, Baltic Dry), ISM supplier delivery times, and the Geopolitical Risk Index are tracked editorially in the quarterly until licensed feeds are wired in.
Long-lead-item tracker
Known long-lead items against pre-2021 baselines. Self-reported and survey data lags; treat as directional and check the date.
| Item | CSI | Baseline (wks) | Current (wks) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Medium-voltage switchgear | 26 | 8 to 12 | 80 to 120 | Extending |
| Power transformers (substation) | 26 | 16 to 24 | 80 to 120 | Extending |
| Generators (large diesel) | 26 | 12 to 20 | 40 to 60 | Extending |
| Chillers (large tonnage) | 23 | 12 to 16 | 30 to 50 | Stable to extending |
| Air handlers (custom) | 23 | 8 to 12 | 24 to 40 | Stable |
| Variable frequency drives | 26 | 4 to 8 | 16 to 24 | Stable |
| Structural steel (fabricated) | 05 | 6 to 12 | 14 to 20 | Stable |
| Fire pumps | 21 | 6 to 10 | 16 to 24 | Stable |
| Imported architectural finishes | 09 | 4 to 8 | 8 to 16 | Watching |
Scenario library
Worked examples with documented parameter ranges, calibrated from historical analogs. Scenarios with published archetype impacts can be applied as a stress test in the calculator.
Strait of Hormuz closure (1-3 quarter duration)
currently active · geopoliticalFour transmission channels: direct petroleum, petrochemicals, energy-intensive manufacturing, container freight plus war-risk insurance. If a sustained full closure runs two or more quarters, roughly double the freight and direct-petroleum channels.
Affected: asphalt, diesel-intensive trades, petrochemical products, imported electrical gear, imported finishes
Red Sea / Bab al-Mandeb disruption
currently active · geopoliticalCape of Good Hope rerouting; affects European and Asian supply chain content.
Affected: imported steel, imported finishes, imported MEP equipment
Taiwan Strait crisis
theoretical · geopoliticalSemiconductor and electronics disruption; lead times double or worse.
Affected: switchgear with electronic controls, BAS components, EV charging infrastructure, data center fitouts
North American softwood lumber escalation
theoretical · trade policyCanadian duty increases or US tariff escalation on top of the current ~14% duty.
Affected: residential framing, light-commercial framing, formwork
Section 232 tariff escalation (steel and aluminum)
currently active · trade policyThe tariff stage-of-input ladder applied as a scenario; domestic producers raise prices in response (shadow inflation). Current regime: 50% steel and aluminum since June 2025, 50% copper since August 2025.
Affected: structural steel, aluminum curtainwall, storefront, electrical enclosures
Parameter assumptions and the historical analogs behind them are listed in data/curated/scenarios.json, last reviewed 2026-06-09.
The feed
Curated items relevant to construction cost. Summaries are Fern's; sources are linked. Last reviewed 2026-06-10.
2026-05-28 · energy
Dallas Fed analysis projects WTI averaging $98 in Q2 2026 with global real GDP growth lowered by 2.9 percentage points annualized for the quarter.
2026-05-12 · energy
QatarEnergy says missile damage to the Ras Laffan LNG complex may take up to five years to fully repair, tightening global LNG supply and pulling Henry Hub modestly higher.
2026-04-17 · freight
Iran declares the Strait of Hormuz open to all shipping after a 44-day nominal closure. Transit traffic remains below pre-conflict levels; Cape of Good Hope rerouting continues to add two to three weeks on Asia-to-Europe and Asia-to-US-East-Coast lanes.
2026-03-30 · insurance
Lloyd's market intelligence: war-risk premiums on Gulf and Red Sea transits quoted at four to five times pre-conflict rates, raising delivered cost on anything moving through the region.
2026-02-25 · materials
AGC PPI commentary: aluminum mill shapes up 33.0% year-over-year, steel mill products up 20.7%, copper and brass mill shapes up 15.7%; the largest increases since 2022-2023. Fern's read: shadow inflation from the 50% Section 232 regime, with further pass-through to come.
2026-02-20 · policy
Supreme Court IEEPA ruling leaves Section 232 steel/aluminum and copper tariffs intact (imposed under separate trade laws). The February 10% general tariff carries a 150-day expiration unless renewed; watch the renewal window.
2026-02-28 · energy
Operation Epic Fury begins; Brent oscillates between $80 and $114 over the following weeks. Diesel ULSD futures rise roughly 40% from pre-conflict levels and have not retraced.