Fern / AEC cost intelligenceFree · web-first · sourced
Fern Quarterly
The quarterly, with its work shown.
Final-cost and input indices, margin dynamics, geopolitical risk transmission, and the tariff landscape with stage-of-input math.
July 2026
Q3 2026
Two economies in one quarter: the market called the recession over while construction contracted 1.5% y/y. The divergence, and the AI-and-power boom that explains it, read through the electrical-equipment order books. Opening cut, anchored to the May 2026 prints.
June 2026
Q2 2026
Section 232 at 50%, the Strait of Hormuz war and ceasefire, and what both actually land as after the stage-of-input ladder. Plus the seven principles behind every Fern number. Revised July 4, 2026 with linked sources.